And What to Do About It

Have you ever said, “Oh, I’ll just do this thing really quickly,” and then it took you a few more hours than you expected?

Whether it’s at work, at home, or out on errands, we’re not very good at accurately estimating how long something will take us. In fact, we’re so not good at it, it has its own name: The Planning Fallacy.

The Planning Fallacy

The Planning Fallacy, first introduced by psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, refers to our tendency to underestimate the amount of time it will take to complete a task.

Why are we so bad at planning how long things will take us?

  1. We get overly optimistic. We want and hope something will take quickly, so we convince ourselves it will take more quickly.
  2. We forget to plan for complications. We forget that we might make mistakes and need to start over, or that we are sometimes interrupted by outside forces.

We ignore historical data. It might take us 3 hours to complete a certain task, but we still manage to convince ourselves that the next time will be faster.

Clock on desk

How to Plan More Accurately

  1. Define clear objectives. Before diving into the planning process, clearly define the objectives and scope of your project. A well-defined project gives you a clear idea of all the steps that will be included.
  2. Break down the project into phases. Divide your project into manageable phases. Breaking down the project into smaller, more digestible components makes it easier to estimate time requirements accurately.
  3. Give yourself more time than you think. Unexpected challenges and changes are inevitable in any project. Add yourself a comfortable buffer, then add a little more.
  4. Plan for best and worst case scenarios. Consider a timeline for the best-case scenario, the worst-case scenario, and the most-likely scenario.
  5. Use a time tracker to give you information for the future. Time yourself while working on a project, so you have the number in black and white. That way, you can reference that number the next time a similar project comes up. (Tip: There is a website called Toggl that I found helpful for keeping track of the amount of time I was spending on work projects.)

Even with all the careful planning in the world, there will still be times when we misjudge how much time something will take. If you’re going to miss a deadline, let other people know as early as possible!